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March to Madness, Top Five Teams, Top Five Players and a New Line
So, another college basketball season has arrived, and once again,
die-hard fans should have plenty to follow. Big-time expectations are
awaiting the game's traditional powers. And talented players such as
Tyler Hansbrough and Blake Griffin are again expected to deliver on the
biggest stages. Last season ended in dramatic fashion as Kansas beat
Memphis 75-68 in overtime for the national championship, and it should
have been North Carolina instead. Here are some thoughts on the
2008-2009 season (with help on the stats from LA and Chicago Sun
Times), which began Monday, and I don't have to tell you who I think
will be the next national champion...seriously this time Tyler.
The Team To Beat:
North Carolina-The Tar Heels are coming off a Final Four Appearance and
school-record 36-win season. The Heels are returning their top six
scorers, including national player of the year Tyler Hansbrough.
The Challengers:
Connecticut-The Big East preseason favorite is led by senior guard A.J.
Price (14.5 points per game, 5.8 assists per game) and center Hasheem
Thabeet (10.5 ppg, 7.9 rebounds per game, 4.5 blocks per game).
Louisville-Junior guard Edgar Sosa (7.6 ppg, 1.6 rpg) is expected to lead the Cardinals to a deep tournament run.
UCLA-Even with the loss of Kevin Love and Russell Westbrook to the NBA, the Bruins are poised for a fourth straight Final Four.
Pittsburgh-Forward Sam Young (18.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) is one of three players returning who scored in double digits last season.
The Top Five Players:
1. Tyler Hansbrough (senior, North Carolina)
Hansbrough, out two weeks with a stress reaction in his right shin, averaged 22.6 ppg and 10.6 rpg last season.
2. Stephen Curry (junior, Davidson)
The 6ft-2 Curry became a star in the NCAA tourney, averaging 25.9 ppg and leading his team to the regional finals.
3. Darren Collison (senior, UCLA)
Collison averaged 14.5 points, 3.8 assists per season and is part of a talented backcourt with Josh Shipp.
4. Tyler Smith (junior, Tennessee)
The preseason SEC Player of the Year led the Volunteers in assists
(3.4), rebounds (6.7) and field-goal percentage (.536) and was third in
scoring (13.6ppg) last season.
5. Blake Griffin (sophomore, Oklahoma)
Griffin made more major news when he spurned the NBA to return to
Norman, where he averaged 14.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.
Five and Counting:
It has been five seasons since Duke reached the Final Four, but the
Blue Devils could snap that string. Coming off a 28-6 season, Duke is
8th in the AP poll, and returns four starters, including senior guard
Greg Paulus (11.4 ppg, 2.1 rpg) and forward Kyle Singler (13.3 ppg, 5.8
rpg).
Thanks for Stopping...Bye:
Last year saw a mass exodus of one-and-done players: Kevin Love,
Russell Westbrook, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose. Here
are the freshman you may want to catch before they take their games to
a higher tax bracket: Samardo Samuels (center, Louisville), Jrue
Holiday (guard, UCLA), B.J. Mullens (center, Ohio State), DeMar DeRozan
(forward, USC).
Harder, Better, Easier, Longer?
There is a new red 3-point-line on the floor, one that arcs in a
half-circle, 20 feet 9 inches from the basket-a foot farther than in
the past. On the floor, the difference does not seem like much-less
than the length of a typical basketball shoe. But such a subtle shift
is enough to alter offensive and defensive strategies, even recruiting.
Practically speaking, the new line could create confusion because the
old line at 19-9 remains in place for women. The two lines must be
different colors, but there is no standard from court to court. Moving
the line back could stretch defenses, which is what the NCAA hoped when
it changed the distance. Or it could congest the middle, as defenses
sag and dare marginal 3-point shooters. It could reduce the number of
3-pointers attempted. Last season, teams shot an average of 19.1
3-pointers a game, the highest rate ever. Or it could increase the
number of attempts, if shooters find themselves less guarded by
defenders. The extra distance could lower the success rate, which
reached 35.23 percent last year, highest since 1993. Or it could
increase it, as borderline shooters from 19-9 shoot less from 20-9. The
line change may affect the way teams play defense more than offense. I
think you'll see more zone defenses early. However, I think the good
shooters will still shoot, and the mediocre ones won't. Let's see who
can make it.
Well, that is it for me and the start of the season of the best sport
on the planet in my humble opinion. It is no secret that I am a Tar
Heel fan, who was in San Antonio last April to see the fall of my team
and their expected glory, which was and is still painful. Myself and I
am sure my Heels are looking for redemption this coming April in the
form of Tyler and our other top five scorers. I have a Vegas sportsbook
receipt with UNC to win it all with 2-1 odds to prove it.
GO HEELS!
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